A rough day for markets and a reminder for investors
The Sandbox Daily (1.20.2026)
Welcome, Sandbox friends.
Today’s Daily discusses:
here we go again
Let’s dig in.
Blake
Markets in review
EQUITIES: Russell 2000 -1.21% | Dow -1.76% | S&P 500 -2.06% | Nasdaq 100 -2.12%
FIXED INCOME: Barclays Agg Bond -0.38% | High Yield -0.26% | 2yr UST 3.599% | 10yr UST 4.295%
COMMODITIES: Brent Crude -0.06% to $63.89/barrel. Gold +3.78% to $4,768.9/oz.
BITCOIN: -6.42% to $89,488
US DOLLAR INDEX: -0.84% to 98.556
CBOE TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.73
VIX: +6.63% to 20.09
Quote of the day
“Whoever said money can’t buy happiness simply didn’t know where to go shopping.”
- Bo Derek
A rough day for markets and a reminder for investors
U.S. stocks got clobbered today as President Trump’s Greenland threats saw a return to the same tariff-induced selloffs that plagued markets throughout 2025 – at the same time wiping out year-to-date gains for many assets.
The White House says it wants to “own” Greenland in the interest of national security. Trump has declared European countries that don’t support a U.S. purchase of the Danish territory will face higher tariffs as a result.
Now, investors must assess the risk of a full-on United States-European Union trade war.
Market days like today absolutely suck, and yet, they serve as a necessary reminder to all of us.
Staying the course isn’t about reacting to the crazy headlines on your tv or all the things that could go wrong at any moment in time.
It’s about committing to a simple, systematic process and investing consistently throughout the calm AND the chaos. Focusing your efforts on what you can control always gives yourself the best chance to build durable wealth over time.
On washout days like Tuesday, I often revisit a simple thought exercise that helps me stay grounded as a long-term investor.
And that’s this straightforward question:
What are the major themes that will impact the global economy and the investment world in the months and years to come?
If I can stay committed to the intermediate cyclical drivers and the longer-term secular growth shifts, then I’ll just let the short-term noise wash right over me.
So, today is a great opportunity to revisit these ideas and keep perspective of why I invest the way I do.
AI innovation
The most upward potential for growth comes from Artificial Intelligence, where the increased efficiency of LLMs and AI chatbots in the past year implies faster productivity gains and higher potential growth.
Increased demand for electricity and commodities is an upward risk to inflation during the buildout and early adoption period.
On the other side of the ledger is the risk of significant labor market disruption globally, specifically to white collar industries where previous technological revolutions have never truly threatened their status quo.
Changing demographics
The aging of the population in much of the developed world and China implies a downtrend in labor participation rates and slower labor force growth for the next decade. Fertility rates across most countries remain below the replacement rate. Growing sentiment against immigration further exacerbates the labor force woes.
Each are structural trends that create drag on the long-term economic growth outlook.
And, of course, we cannot forget the “Great Wealth Transfer” over the next two decades where an estimated $80 trillion will transfer from the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers to younger generations.
Ongoing fiscal challenges
This one won’t really matter until it does. And, when it does matter, it will likely be too late.
Most developed economies are heading into the next decade from an unfavorable fiscal position.
Government debt/GDP ratios, which had spiked during the covid-19 pandemic, have come down only partially, and firmly remain on an upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.
In the short term, expect more government spending on defense, energy security, and domestic demand – as sovereign nations navigate the changing global trade order and heightened geopolitical risks.
Energy evolution
Although climate change concerns and the impact from fossil fuels haven’t exactly disappeared, they have taken a backseat to issues of energy security and satisfying the greater demand for electricity from AI and datacenters, amid the expected continued digitalization of the global economy.
U.S. energy independence gives it a competitive advantage over other regions, but remains constrained by an outdated and congested power grid.
Elsewhere, expect nuclear power, electric vehicles, and electricity storage/distribution to persist as key themes over the coming decade.
Global trade
The global order in 2026 is in a much different place than most of my investing life.
The covid-19 pandemic exposed global supply chain vulnerabilities and called for onshoring of different industries. In 2025 and 2026, the U.S. turned to trade protectionism using markedly higher tariff rates which is reshuffling global trade flows in real time. Ongoing conflicts around the globe are disrupting the natural flow of goods and uprooting traditional plumbing measures like currency and collateral.
These headwinds create potentially higher inflation and a drag on global growth as competition and comparative advantage benefits from specialization are eroded. Expect more fragmented global trade in the years to come, not less.
So… where does all this leave us today?
The same place I was last week and last month.
My confidence and excitement over these big investment ideas is not deterred because of President Trump’s one month obsession with Greenland.
Markets will always find a reason to panic in the short run – just like today’s nasty session – but real wealth is built by staying anchored to the forces that actually shape the future.
We cannot control near-term market risks, but what I can control is my process, my time horizon, and my risk parameters.
History suggests that’s more than enough to win over the long run.
That’s all for today.
Blake
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Welcome to The Sandbox Daily, a daily curation of relevant research at the intersection of markets, economics, and lifestyle. We are committed to delivering high-quality and timely content to help investors make sense of capital markets.
Blake Millard is the Director of Investments at Sandbox Financial Partners, a Registered Investment Advisor. All opinions expressed here are solely his opinion and do not express or reflect the opinion of Sandbox Financial Partners. This Substack channel is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The information and opinions provided within should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision by the reader. Investors should conduct their own due diligence regarding the prospects of any security discussed herein based on such investors’ own review of publicly available information. Clients of Sandbox Financial Partners may maintain positions in the markets, indexes, corporations, and/or securities discussed within The Sandbox Daily. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates stated here are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable; they are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur.
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well put. mission doesn’t change because of some volatility/and negative headlines.