Holding 6720
The Sandbox Daily (2.5.2026)
Welcome, Sandbox friends.
Today’s Daily discusses:
hold the line
Let’s dig in.
Blake
Markets in review
EQUITIES: Dow -1.20% | S&P 500 -1.23% | Nasdaq 100 -1.38% | Russell 2000 -1.79%
FIXED INCOME: Barclays Agg Bond +0.43% | High Yield -0.11% | 2yr UST 3.455% | 10yr UST 4.182%
COMMODITIES: Brent Crude -3.05% to $67.34/barrel. Gold -3.21% to $4,791.7/oz.
BITCOIN: -13.16% to $63,158
US DOLLAR INDEX: +0.36% to 97.971
CBOE TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.00
VIX: +16.79% to 21.77
Quote of the day
“There’s a time to go long, a time to go short, and a time to go fishing.”
- Jesse Livermore
Hold the line !
The December Low Indicator, originated by former Forbes columnist Lucien Hooper in the 1970s, emphasizes the importance of the stock market holding above the prior year’s December low.
Simply put, this old trader adage says that you never want to see an index undercut the December low during the 1st quarter of the new year. If the December low is violated, then caution is warranted for the rest of the year.
The December 2025 low is 6720 for the S&P 500 index.
Despite the recent -2.9% pullback from the recent high achieved last week, the S&P 500 has not violated its December 2025 low. At least, not yet.
The index currently trades at 6798.
However, should the index slip below 6720, then fasten your seatbelt.
Calendar year returns historically average a median return of +0.10% with a paltry 51% positivity rate.
Investors are standing with William Wallace at 6720.
Source: YCharts, Piper Sandler
That’s all for today.
Blake
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Welcome to The Sandbox Daily, a daily curation of relevant research at the intersection of markets, economics, and lifestyle. We are committed to delivering high-quality and timely content to help investors make sense of capital markets.
Blake Millard is the Director of Investments at Sandbox Financial Partners, a Registered Investment Advisor. All opinions expressed here are solely his opinion and do not express or reflect the opinion of Sandbox Financial Partners. This Substack channel is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The information and opinions provided within should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision by the reader. Investors should conduct their own due diligence regarding the prospects of any security discussed herein based on such investors’ own review of publicly available information. Clients of Sandbox Financial Partners may maintain positions in the markets, indexes, corporations, and/or securities discussed within The Sandbox Daily. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates stated here are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable; they are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur.
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