Reframe volatility as opportunity, not danger
The Sandbox Daily (4.21.2026)
Welcome, Sandbox friends.
Today’s Daily discusses:
elevated volatility creates BTD opportunities
Let’s dig in.
Blake
Markets in review
EQUITIES: Nasdaq 100 -0.42% | Dow -0.59% | S&P 500 -0.63% | Russell 2000 -1.00%
FIXED INCOME: Barclays Agg Bond -0.37% | High Yield -0.26% | 2yr UST 3.781% | 10yr UST 4.294%
COMMODITIES: Brent Crude +3.83% to $99.14/barrel. Gold -1.94% to $4,735.3/oz.
BITCOIN: -1.71% to $75,668
US DOLLAR INDEX: +0.29% to 98.38
CBOE TOTAL PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.91
VIX: +3.34% to 19.50
Quote of the day
“To play a wrong note is insignificant. To play without passion is inexcusable!”
- Ludwig van Beethoven
Elevated volatility creates buy-the-dip opportunities
The Volatility Index (VIX), developed by Dr. Robert Whaley back in 1993, gauges “fear and greed” in the stock market by measuring the 30-day implied volatility of S&P 500 index options.
In plain English, VIX is a market-based measure trying to assess the future movement of U.S. large cap stocks over the next month. It typically shows an inverse relationship with the S&P 500.
As a helpful rule-of-thumb, a 16 VIX implies a one-day move in the S&P 500 of roughly +/-1%. A 30-ish VIX implies a one-day move of +/-2%.
Notably, on March 30, the VIX eclipsed 30 – its highest level since Liberation Day in April 2025.
The table below shows the weekly S&P 500 index forward returns when the VIX crosses above 30.
Since 1990, there have been 94 instances in which the volatility index has crossed above 30.
The average forward returns for the S&P 500 over the next 3-months (13-week), 6-months (26-week), and 12-months (52-week) weeks were +5.1%, +9.0%, and +12.9%, with positive hit rates all over 70%.
While a VIX above 30 doesn’t guarantee a market low is in place, it does often set the stage for a tradeable bottom.
So, when a similar reading flashes in the future, reframe volatility in your mind to imply opportunity, not danger.
Source: Piper Sandler
That’s all for today.
Blake
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Welcome to The Sandbox Daily, a daily curation of relevant research at the intersection of markets, economics, and lifestyle. We are committed to delivering high-quality and timely content to help investors make sense of capital markets.
Blake Millard is the Director of Investments at Sandbox Financial Partners, a Registered Investment Advisor. All opinions expressed here are solely his opinion and do not express or reflect the opinion of Sandbox Financial Partners. This Substack channel is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The information and opinions provided within should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision by the reader. Investors should conduct their own due diligence regarding the prospects of any security discussed herein based on such investors’ own review of publicly available information. Clients of Sandbox Financial Partners may maintain positions in the markets, indexes, corporations, and/or securities discussed within The Sandbox Daily. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates stated here are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable; they are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur.
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