Sitemap - 2023 - The Sandbox Daily

What I read each week

4th year of the Presidential cycle, plus 2k subs !!

Market bears head for the locker room, plus gasoline prices, geopolitics and risk premia, and time horizons

Stocks in the long-run, plus average returns, time horizons, and risk tolerance

Bulls outlast bears, plus frequency of market drops, climbing the wall of worry, and your priority pyramid

The most important themes and charts that defined 2023 (part IV)

The most important themes and charts that defined 2023 (part III)

The most important themes and charts that defined 2023 (part II)

The most important themes and charts that defined 2023 (part I)

Corporate defaults, plus household savings, 2024 market expectations from Presidential cycles, and used car prices

The manufacturing economy, plus Apple, 2023 IPO window, and rate expectations

The final hike, plus S&P 500 year-end outlook, job openings, and China's credit outlook cut

Equity flows remain depressed, plus the banner month for bonds, commercial real estate, and financial conditions ease

December is here!, plus equity flow, volatility on stock returns, bank losses, and bearish sentiment collapses

Investor whiplash, plus the move in yields, GDP revision, U.S. dollar slide, and retiring The Reformed Broker

Leadership within the S&P 500, plus AI/cybersecurity, volatility, and Charlie Munger

Relief in Treasury yields, plus earnings, Black Friday, U.S. oil production, and Amazon's delivery business

Nasdaq 100 approaching ATHs, plus the largest stocks, global supply chain, Binance, and giving thanks

S&P 500 performance after the final hike, plus seasonal trends, yields, hedge fund positioning, and home sales

Investors remain cautious, plus leading indicators soft again, Fed balance sheet, streaming prices, and Thanksgiving travel

Improved market structure, plus labor shifts, new car prices, demand concerns, and investor sentiment

Gaps EVERYWHERE, plus 10 demons, market concentration, bear markets, and Retail Sales

Inflation's final descent, plus peak interest rates, Apple's racket, Dollar falls/stocks surge, and Q4 estimates

Top 20 investment mistakes, plus year-end tax planning updates, unemployment, and defense

Narrow market leadership, plus earnings, small-caps, and bullish sentiment

The hard part is over (Goldman outlook), plus bankruptcies, MBS/TSY disconnect, and Bitcoin HODLers

U.S. household debt by the numbers, plus tight credit conditions, housing (un)affordability, and higher-for-longer

Major breadth thrust signal, plus central bank policy, bank losses, last week's rally, and crypto inflows

Selling exhausted, plus the final hike, Treasury refunding, venture, emergency expenses, and the week in review

Aligning financial priorities, plus savings account rates, jobs, and We(NoLonger)Work

Seasonal trends into year-end, plus systematic traders and the 200-DMA

No love for gold, plus breadth compression, rates, positioning, and Bitcoin halving

Activate: market correction mode, plus 3rd quarter earnings, U.S. dollar, and the week in review

Hot 3rd quarter GDP print, plus small-caps and saving for $1,000,000

Why the United States, plus 10-yr Treasury to 5.25%, best time to invest, and the streaming business

Narrow market leadership, plus Q3 earnings season, small businesses, and shelter inflation

Budget deficit, plus househould net worth, recent S&P 500 losses, positioning and sentiment, and Bill Ackman

Money Market Fund flows, plus real rates, VIX, wage gains, and the week in review

Chair Powell comments, plus % central banks hiking, Tesla earnings, leading indicators, and a visit from JPM

Recession odds fall below 50%, plus Growth/Value ratio, mortgage rates hit 8%, bond returns vs interest rates, and the U.S. saving rate

Fedspeak "less hawkish," plus Social Security COLA adjustment, Retail Sales, and holiday travel

Is the Fed done, plus lousy QQQ breadth, 2024 Treasury issuance, and a visit with Charles Payne

Buyers of U.S. Treasurys, plus the week in review

Balancing time horizons (and your emotions), plus 1-yr anniversary of the bull, bankruptcies, Consumer Prices, and the UAW strike

Rate cuts on the horizon (??!?), plus Fed's dovish posturing this week, unprofitable firms, and wholesale inflation

Fed risks policy error, plus Israel and the A.I. effect

Oil market, plus commercial real estate and lack of breadth expansion

Reasons to sell, plus the average stock (RSP), corporate bond issuance, and labor strikes

Market breadth deteriorates, plus auto loan delinquencies rise and CD opportunities

Sam Bankman-Fried on trial, plus hot jobs report and bond losses exceed GFC stock losses

Narrow leadership, plus bond flows, the Prime Rate, and the rule of 72

Markets turn the page to October, plus momentum (RSI) at extremes, Fed's inflation measure, and the week in review

Deep Risk vs. Shallow Risk, plus hikes-to-cuts, housing affordability crisis, and bond yields

Messy markets, plus the cost of capital and oil demand

Bears take out 4300 on the S&P 500, plus China, bull steepeners, and a visit with Charles Payne

U.S. gov't heading to a shutdown, plus weak equity appetite, $24B in childcare aid expiring, and 3 stages of life

Staggering bond drawdowns, plus oil supply, QT, and the week in review

Investing principles, plus debt service costs, gas prices, IPO returns, and leading economic indicators

Fed leaves key policy rate unchanged, plus the great wealth transfer, no stress in credit, and Dallas TX

State of the market, plus tech supercycles, bond market positioning, risk management, and pre-trade checklist

U.S. dollar strength, plus Instacart, drivers over different time horizons, and a guest spot with All Star Charts

Recession indicator reaches a record, plus year-end headwinds, moats, earnings revisions, and the week in review

Closing out Future Proof, plus the 4 technical gaps, short-dated options, and Retail Sales

Future Proof: sights and sounds from day 3

Future Proof: the sights and sounds from days 1 and 2

Future Proof, plus submerging markets and a brief recap of the trading week

The NFL is BACK!!!, plus the business cycle, stocks loved by Wall Street, and AI exuberance

Cash on the sidelines, plus zombies, Apple's rough day, and homeowners insurance

Volatility, plus Goldman's recession forecast (and why it doesn't matter), oil, and analysts (finally) raising estimates

Seasonal headwinds, plus the Fed's inflation measure, industrials, and EVs

Stock volatility, plus Mastercard/Visa, Chamath Palihapitiya, and sequence of returns risk

Bitcoin's big day, plus rate spikes, a key labor report, and the Fortune 500 by age

Market leadership, plus risk tolerance and a key cross-market divergence

AI adoption, plus bonds and Michigan football, alternative investments, cash/cash alternatives, and the week in markets

Jackson Hole, global markets await Fed Chair Powell's speech and THE most important chart for investors

Hedge funds play catch up, plus Arm files IPO paperwork, leadership from semis, and global breadth deteriorates

S&P 500 looking for support, plus what investors can control, U.S. economic outlook, and the average investor

Excess savings wind down, plus investor time horizons, bonds on the move, and U.S. municipality tax concerns

The staggering decline in housing affordability, plus an investor's mindset and the week in review

No stress in credit, plus managing downside risk, long-term investing, and leading economic indicators

Treasuries weigh on investors, plus timing the market, Berkshire's portfolio, and streaming wars

Revisiting Technical Analysis with "The Mooch," plus cheap fixed-rate debt, China, and Retail Sales

Michael Burry's Big Short 2.0, plus the U.S. dollar and MSFT-GOOGL chatbot race

Inflation continues to cool βœ…, plus energy heats up πŸ“ˆ and bankruptcies on the rise πŸ’₯

Investment time horizons, plus Dr. Copper, triaging mistakes, and deflation in China

Household debt by the numbers, plus ARKK, the economic cycle, and Vanguard's capital market assumptions

Treasury yields stall out, plus the pending maturity wall, stock/bond correlations, and mortgage payments

The July jobs report, plus investment returns β‰  investor returns and the week in review

Jim Cramer 2007 vintage, plus bond market struggles, market jitters, portfolio insurance, and rules-based investing

Historic U.S. credit rating downgrade (or is it?), plus small-caps, BofA removes recession call, and ADP jobs report

A market of stocks, plus seasonal trends flashing yellow and the Fed on credit conditions

Energy rips, plus cheap fixed-rate debt, Q2 earnings, and the Fed's preferred inflation guage

VIX unlocking markets, plus stock returns after the final hike, U.S. economic growth, and credit

Fed hikes another 25 bps, plus "average" returns, IMF forecast, the Dow WOWs agains, and the market multiple

Rolling drawdowns, plus consumer confidence, stock market pullbacks, loss aversion, and Barbenheimer!

A BIG welcome to the TCAF "Pounders"

Market leadership, plus leading economic indicators, U.S. dollar breakdown, and the week in review

Banks reclaim key level, plus finance IRL, equity exposure, and next upside target for S&P 500

ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY FOR THE SANDBOX DAILY(!!), plus AT&T, market valuation, and the recession

Tech prints new all-time highs, plus Nasdaq 100 rebalance, U.S. Treasuries, and Retail Sales

S&P 500 YTD returns, plus Q2 earnings season, wage gains, and improving sentiment

Small-caps, housing market, Taylor Swift, and the week in review

Inflation, savings, and earnings guidance

πŸ“‰ Inflation down again, falling for the 12th consecutive month πŸ“‰

The staggering size of the ETF market, plus Energy, financial plans, and S&P 500 forward expectations

Wall Street 2nd half outlook, plus Nasdaq 100 and interest rates on the rise again

A week of rest

Small-caps, crude oil, behavioral finance, and Americans love to spend

Investors pay close attention to Value

The history of bull and bear markets, plus the biggest stocks, buying the dip, and industrials

Strongest bear market in history(?), plus solid market starts and San Diego, CA

S&P 500 breadth measure pushes the technical indicator towards all-time highs

Bitcoin pushes higher to $30k

The story > the numbers, plus personal debt, market valuations, savings rates, student loans, and the Florida housing market

Fed forecasts, investors warm up to risk, and cash comes off the sidelines

Tech near all-time highs, plus cardboard boxes, semiconductors, social security, and the week in review

Sector rotation and the bull case

Fed announces a pause on interest rate hikes (finally)

Inflation down (again), Tesla up (again)

Real estate market, plus inflation expectations, tech, and corporate earnings

The bulls are back in town!

The 'Great Resignation' is over and market history 101

Bankruptcies rise, plus regional banks, housing affordability, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Falling volatility propels market higher

Apple hits all-time highs while VIX collapses

The average stock has gone nowhere over last 25 years

A market of stocks, plus calm market moves, U.S. dollar strength, oil slips, and ADP payrolls

Seasonal trends for June, plus long-term market returns, financials and small-caps, AI warning, and April's JOLTS report

Breaking down S&P 500 YTD returns, plus 100 trading days, TSA screenings, cash flows, and the immigrant workforce

NVDA explodes higher, plus the debt ceiling, Fed's inflation measure, and the week in review

Fitch puts U.S. on credit watch, plus S&P 500 looking for expansion, bond market, two key risk metrics, and supply chains

The diploma divide, plus insufficient funds, NBER on recessions, home prices plummet, and adults feeling worse off

Debt ceiling impact, plus S&P 500 breaks out on absolute and relative basis, leading economic indicators, and mortgages

New housing market paradigm, plus tech leadership, private credit, CRE 2023 vs. mortgages 2007, hotel occupancy, and the week in review

Monetary policy, plus homebuilders, the market cycle, and market breadth

Debt limit, plus economic moats, three-legged investing stool, and U.S. vs. Int'l equities

13F filings and Michael Burry, plus Bitcoin, U.S. total debt surpasses $17 trillion, retail sales, and the worse investment decision of all time

Q1 earnings update, plus Baby Boomer wealth transfer, manufacturing, Fed policy, and Apple

A day of rest

How stocks perform past peak inflation, plus producer prices, China, rate hikes breaking things, and initial jobless claims

CPI day (!!!), plus confidence wanes for Powell, financials, passive flows, and the best time to invest

Labor force participation rate, plus loan standards, 5-step stock framework, the Buffet indicator, and work-life balance

Debt ceiling, plus a market of stocks, weak demand, Friday's jobs report, and the past vs. the present

Money availability, plus strength from communications, the IPO draught, minimum wage, and the week in review

Loss aversion, plus micro-caps, global central banks, ChatGPT, wage growth, and state taxes

Fed hikes target rate, plus S&P 500 after the last hike, tighter credit conditions, performance by market cap, and oil

Smaller banks are hurting, plus labor data, corporate defaults, homeowners, and bad market breadth

Mid-season earnings review, plus Nasdaq 100, debt limit update, and peak AI exuberance?

May seasonal trends, plus capital market assumptions (CMAs), global trade, and the week in review

Consumer credit, plus 1st quarter GDP growth, stocks diverge from earnings, Fed breaking things, and defensive leadership

Savings rates, plus 1-day VIX, Microsoft and Google earnings, HY credit markets, and things you can control

Long-term S&P 500 average, plus cross-market risk metric, M2 money supply, and housing prices

Earnings season update, plus consumer spending, debt ceiling, household balance sheets, and the options market

Leading indicators flash red, plus financials, $31.4 trillion debt, stock≠business, and the week in review

Dollar at key support, plus jobless claims, housing data, I-bonds, and a look at 4/20

The most important chart for investors, plus financials and small caps at key support, breadth, equity outflows, and the debt limit

60-40 portfolio, plus market sentiment, China's GDP growth, and a scary study from Credit Karma

Earnings season, plus high yield credit, Millennials, Fed's emergency lending, and consumer spending

CPI day (!!!), plus hedge funds, Twitter, bankruptcies rising, IMF growth outlook, and the case for indexing

Market drawdowns, plus sufficiently restrictive, $30k Bitcoin, earnings season, and marginal return

10-yr Treasury yield, plus March jobs report, bank lending, and S&P 500's tepid recovery

Volatility, plus credit cards, market breadth, America's trade deficit, and the week in review

S&P 500 outlook, plus Gold, supply chains, Dow strength, investing w/o emotion, and Finland

The Fed pivot, plus energy stocks, labor data, and state-owned investors

S&P 500 after Fed hiking cycles, plus bond volatility, EPS cuts, OPEC+, and renewable energy

Fed's preferred inflation measure, plus stocks up Q1, seasonality, black swans, and the week in review

Fed's balance sheet, plus int'l stocks, job cuts, REITs, and Warren Buffett

Bad breadth, plus bear markets, shadow banking, Fed breaking things, and how to build wealth

Credit risks, plus Bitcoin, capital markets, active management, and mom & dad to the rescue!

Money market flows, plus European banks, SPR reserves, yield inversion, and $100,000

Fed adds liquidity, plus hikes-to-cuts, corporate borrowing, and the week in review

The COVID market bottom, plus tech/bitcoin lead, JPMorgan, 90 years of market history, and goals-based investing

Fed hikes target rate πŸ“ˆ, plus cash πŸ’΅ πŸ’°, prescription drugs, and good habits

Commercial Real Estate, plus financials, home prices, M&A, and social media financial advice

Growth vs. Value, plus job losses, financial conditions, gold, and sentiment

πŸ€ Discount window, plus retail sales, rate volatility, and the week in review πŸ€

Inflation expectations, plus bank lending, market indigestion, short-term rates, and DCA

Credit Suisse, plus S&P 500 support, interest rate volatility, Fed decision, VIX, and oil crashes

CPI day (!!!), plus Bitcoin, Gold, mortgages, money markets, and investing vs. spending

Silicon Valley Bank: 2nd largest bank failure in U.S. history

The week in review

Personal savings fall, plus banks selloff, work-from-home, top cities for economic output, and long-term returns

ECB begins QT, plus Warren Buffett buys OXY, stock buybacks, labor data, and a winning mindset

Housing affordability, plus sector reclassifications, the inversion, and HY maturity schedule

Credit cards showing fatigue, plus SPX forward P/E, Nasdaq, labor market, and Industrials

Bullish engulfing pattern, plus Coca-Cola, tech arms race, market broadens, and the week in review

Bond market on the move, plus earnings, 6-mo TSY bill, Chinese subway data, and 4 basic tenets

Options markets, plus European yields, China manufacturing, Netflix, subprime auto loans, and traders vs. investors

Seasonality favors March, plus cross asset flows, recession indicators, volatility, and LT returns

Hedge fund trends, plus cooling recession fears, U.S. dollar, cobalt, and recovering from losses

Fed's inflation measure comes in hot, plus real estate, Russian fossil fuels, worker strikes, and the week in review

SPX holding strong, investor positioning, bullish sentiment(?), average retirement balances, and never giving up

S&P 500 looks for support, plus venture fundraising, IPOs, nat gas, and Miracle on Ice

U.S. debt ceiling, plus leading economic indicators, federal debt, and industrials

America's debt problem, plus Bitcoin, behavioral finance, and the week in review

50/30/20 budget heuristic, 5% Treasuries, holding periods, producer prices, and simple truths about money

America's strength in capital markets, plus retail sales, wages, election spending, and save+invest

CPI inflation firmer than expected

China's growth tailwind, plus bearish sentiment, affordable homes, the consumer, and the Super Bowl hangover

Super Bowl LVII, plus active management, U.S. interest expense, Bitcoin, and the week in review

Sentiment improves, plus recession markers, P/E multiple, and short covering

State of the Union, plus credit spreads, mortgage applications, Fed Funds, and 99% of investing

Breadth in stock momentum, plus how America invests, goodbye extreme pessimism, and the U.S. recession

New highs for Russell 3000, plus earnings update, FANG explodes, recession risks, rate expectations, and one simple graphic

Short squeeze, plus the hot job report, Tesla, AMEX, int'l stocks, tech layoffs, Rocket Man, and the week in review

Volatility (the key to 2023?), plus rate hikes in Europe, stock buybacks, and Groundhog Day

Fed hikes target rate, plus manufacturing activity, jobs data, and social media usage

πŸ“ˆ The Bullish Trifecta πŸ“ˆ

Risk appetite, plus stocks bottom first, breadth improves, energy, and history on 2023's side

A big week coming for markets, plus inflation, shipping, Nielsen rankings, and the week in review

Stocks at critical technical levels, plus GDP growth, gas prices, ChatGPT, and financial security

Tech titans, plus demand for gold, Justin Bieber, and great businesses

Pre-election year cycles, plus stocks at critical resistance, Tech, and purchasing power

SPY turns 30, plus the 60-40 portfolio, economic data flashes red, and the semis value chain

ChatGPT and the week in review

Negative earnings, plus valuation reset, dividend-payers, and the trend is your friend

Seller exhaustion, plus options markets and 10 investing lessons from Morgan Stanley

S&P 500 resistance line, plus U.S. debt, global risks, the dollar, and China's population in decline

Treasury rates, plus S&P 500 time horizons, flight disruptions, and the week in review

December CPI report, plus active management, a golden cross, and long-term results

Soft landing scenario, plus World Bank, Baby Boomers, and emerging markets

Hard landing scenario, plus monetary policy, pre- vs. post-pandemic employment, Caterpillar, and investing β‰  gambling

Monetary policy lags, plus negative-yielding debt, EV market share, Macau casinos, and Avatar: The Way of Water

Recession outlook, plus earnings estimates, market internals, the internet, and the week in review

Euro stocks, plus Santa delivers, inflation expectations, and currency devaluation

Stocks at long-term structural support, plus average returns, jobs data, making back losses, and long-term investing

Unpacking 2022 market performance